$U$-statistics play a central role in statistical inference. In many modern applications, however, acquiring the labels required for $U$-statistics is costly. Motivated by recent advances in active inference, we develop an active inference framework for $U$-statistics that selectively queries informative labels to improve estimation efficiency under a fixed labeling budget, while preserving valid statistical inference. Our approach is built on the augmented inverse probability weighting $U$-statistic, which is designed to incorporate the sampling rule and machine learning predictions. We characterize the optimal sampling rule that minimizes its variance and design practical sampling strategies. We further extend the framework to $U$-statistic-based empirical risk minimization. Experiments on real datasets demonstrate substantial gains in estimation efficiency over baseline methods, while maintaining target coverage.

Finite-sample analyses of deep Q-learning typically treat replayed data as independent, even though it is sampled from temporally dependent state-action trajectories. We study the Deep Q-networks (DQN) algorithm under explicit dependence by modelling the minibatches used for updating the network as $τ$-mixing. We show that this assumption holds under certain dependence conditions on the underlying trajectories and the mechanism used to sample minibatches. Building on this observation, we extend statistical analyses of DQN with fully connected ReLU architectures to dependent data. We formulate each update as a nonparametric regression problem with $τ$-mixing observations and derive finite-sample risk bounds under this dependence structure. Our results show that temporal dependence leads to a degradation in the statistical rate by inducing an additional dimensionality penalty in the rate exponent, reflecting the reduced effective sample size of $τ$-mixing data. Moreover, we derive the sample complexity of DQN under $tau$-mixing from these risk bounds. Finally, we empirically demonstrate on standard Gymnasium environments that the independence assumption is systematically violated and that replay sampling yields approximately exponentially decaying correlations, supporting our theoretical framework.

The importance of studying the robustness of learners to malicious data is well established. While much work has been done establishing both robust estimators and effective data injection attacks when the attacker is omniscient, the ability of an attacker to provably harm learning while having access to little information is largely unstudied. We study the potential of a "blind attacker" to provably limit a learner's performance by data injection attack without observing the learner's training set or any parameter of the distribution from which it is drawn. We provide examples of simple yet effective attacks in two settings: firstly, where an "informed learner" knows the strategy chosen by the attacker, and secondly, where a "blind learner" knows only the proportion of malicious data and some family to which the malicious distribution chosen by the attacker belongs. For each attack, we analyze minimax rates of convergence and establish lower bounds on the learner's minimax risk, exhibiting limits on a learner's ability to learn under data injection attack even when the attacker is "blind".

Variational methods that rely on a recognition network to approximate the posterior of directed graphical models offer better inference and learning than previous methods. Recent advances that exploit the capacity and flexibility in this approach have expanded what kinds of models can be trained. However, as a proposal for the posterior, the capacity of the recognition network is limited, which can constrain the representational power of the generative model and increase the variance of Monte Carlo estimates. To address these issues, we introduce an iterative refinement procedure for improving the approximate posterior of the recognition network and show that training with the refined posterior is competitive with state-of-the-art methods. The advantages of refinement are further evident in an increased effective sample size, which implies a lower variance of gradient estimates.

Additionally, to avoid gradients with infinite means even if DL is not contractive, we consider a spectral normalisation, so that instead of computing recursively η0 = ε and ηk = DLηk 1 for k {1,...,N},weset η0 =εand The motivation was to have a quadratic increase for the penalty term if the largest absolute eigenvalue approaches 1, and then smoothly switch to a linear function for values larger than δ2. The suggested approach can perform poorly for non-convex potentials or even convex potentials such as arsing in a logistic regression model for some data sets. The idea now is to run HMC with unit mass matrix for the transformed variables z = f 1(q) where q π. Hessian-vector products can similarly be computed using vector-Jacobian products: With g(z) = grad( U,z), we then compute 2 U(z)w = vjp(g,z,w)> for z = f 1(stop grad(f(zbL/2c)). We also stop all U gradients, i.e.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample from an unnormalized probability distribution.

We study nonasymptotic (finite-sample) confidence intervals for treatment effects in randomized experiments. In the existing literature, the effective sample sizes of nonasymptotic confidence intervals tend to be looser than the corresponding central-limit-theorem-based confidence intervals by a factor depending on the square root of the propensity score. We show that this performance gap can be closed, designing nonasymptotic confidence intervals that have the same effective sample size as their asymptotic counterparts. Our approach involves systematic exploitation of negative dependence or variance adaptivity (or both). We also show that the nonasymptotic rates that we achieve are unimprovable in an information-theoretic sense.